Mexico’s economy is expected to see minimal growth this year, following a near miss with technical recession last quarter, according to a Reuters poll.

Analysts say that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies will continue to weigh heavily on private consumption and investment in Latin America’s second-largest economy.

Concerns are now focused on the possible fallout from additional US tariffs on auto parts. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is aiming to limit the damage through negotiations and by backing domestic initiatives.

Mexico’s GDP is projected to grow by just 0.2% this year, according to the median forecast of 32 economists surveyed between April 21 and 25, a steep downgrade from the 1.2% growth forecast in January.

The forecast falls well short of the government’s optimistic projection of 1.5%–2.3% growth, though it remains slightly more positive than the IMF’s prediction of a 0.3% contraction, a view that drew an official response last week.

According to Rodolfo Mitchell, Scotiabank’s chief economist for Mexico, the slowdown began last year, driven by market concerns over certain government reforms and a fragile fiscal outlook.

“Furthermore, the arrival of Trump to the White House and his tariff policy have exacerbated downside risks related to growth,” Mitchell stated.

“This has resulted in the expectation of economic contraction for 2025 due to stagnant investment, a contraction in production and a sharp slowdown in consumption.”

All 12 economists who responded to follow-up questions in the poll said the risks to their 2025 GDP forecasts leaned to the downside, with none expecting stronger-than-projected growth.

When asked about the impact of US tariffs on business sentiment in Mexico, half of respondents (six) described it as “negative,” while five (42%) called it “very negative,” and only one viewed it as “neutral.”

No respondents rated the tariff impact as “positive” or “very positive.” The high share of “very negative” responses stood in stark contrast to a Brazil-focused poll earlier this month, where just one out of 21 analysts (5%) held a similarly bleak outlook.

This highlights mounting fears of direct fallout from the tariffs on Mexico, compounded by broader concerns over deteriorating global economic conditions.

Mexico likely bypassed a technical recession by the slimmest margin, showing zero growth, but no contraction, last quarter, according to a separate weekly Reuters poll ahead of the preliminary GDP release expected this week.

However, this consensus is more optimistic than the quarterly Reuters poll’s projection of a 0.4% decline in final GDP, which would officially mark a recession.