The Mexican economy is forecast to have grown 0.1% year-on-year in July but contracted 0.1% compared to June, according to preliminary figures released on Tuesday by the national statistics agency INEGI.
The data comes from INEGI’s Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which provides early estimates for the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE).
If confirmed, this would mark the economy’s second monthly decline in 2023, following a 0.2% drop in March.
Mexico’s economy expanded by an estimated 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year in the second quarter. Yet, it is now projected to begin the second half of 2025 on a negative note, after having emerged from a technical recession in the first half of the year, Mexico News Daily reports.
Following a 0.2% month-over-month decline in March, activity rebounded slightly with 0.5% growth in April, but stagnated in both May and June.
“Today’s results reflect a slight moderation in the performance of the main groups of economic activities (secondary and tertiary), with particular emphasis on the performance of secondary activities, as they remain in negative territory in their annual comparison,” according to the Mexican financial group Monex.
INEGI’s estimates show that the industrial sector, classified as a secondary economic activity, shrank 0.1% on a monthly basis and 1% year-on-year.
Despite this, Mexico’s Finance Ministry has chosen to uphold its current growth forecast of between 1.5% and 2.3% as it prepares the 2026 Economic Package, due no later than 8th September.
Independent forecasts differ, with the OECD projecting Mexico’s GDP to grow 0.4% in 2025, while Citi expects a more modest 0.3%.
Mexico’s growth outlook has nevertheless been revised upward, from 0.1% to 0.4%, according to IMEF president Gabriela Gutiérrez, who spoke during a conference call with El Economista.
Moreover, Víctor Manuel Herrera, president of the National Committee for Economic Studies at the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF), explained that the modest upward revision in Mexico’s growth forecast was partly due to the US decision to delay the implementation of tariffs on Mexican goods, which had been scheduled to take effect on 1st August.
“The announcements have been to implement the new tariffs, then cancel them, then postpone them, and in the end, there isn’t much change, with a few exceptions. What this has done is interrupt export flows and then reactivate them,” Gutiérrez said.